Audit Report for ESTES VALLEY RECREATION AND PARK DIST BALLOT ISSUE 4D

Proportion of the total number of votes for this contest that were cast within this county: 100.0%

See additional statistical information below...

Batch Seq Threshhold Random Priority Type Batches Ballots Contest Ballots NO Over Under YES
Totals 40 0 8 36
000005 0.129449 AB p088_mb_006 None 1 1 0 0 0
000008 0.129449 AB p092_mb_010 None 1 0 0 0 1
000009 0.129449 AB p094_mb_011 None 1 0 0 0 1
000011 0.129449 AB p096_mb_013 None 1 1 0 0 0
000012 0.129449 AB p097_mb_014 None 1 0 0 0 1
000027 0.129449 EV p053_ev_027 None 1 0 0 1 0
000018 0.129449 AB p076_mb_020 None 1 0 0 0 1
000033 0.129449 AB p044_mb_035 None 1 1 0 0 0
000035 0.129449 AB p046_mb_037 None 1 1 0 0 0
000054 0.129449 AB p070_mb_057 None 1 1 0 0 0
000029 0.340246 EV p039_ev_031 None 3 1 0 0 2
000064 0.129449 EV p112_ev_067 None 1 0 0 0 1
000066 0.242142 EV p100_ev_069 None 2 2 0 0 0
000055 0.340246 AB p033_mb_058 None 3 0 0 1 2
000075 0.129449 AB p107_ev_078 None 1 1 0 0 0
000079 0.242142 AB p123_mb_082 None 2 2 0 0 0
000080 0.129449 AB p124_mb_083 None 1 0 0 0 1
000099 0.129449 AB p132_mb_102 None 1 1 0 0 0
000105 0.242142 AB p169_mb_108 None 2 2 0 0 0
000112 0.129449 AB p143_mb_115 None 1 1 0 0 0
000123 0.129449 AB p147_mb_126 None 1 1 0 0 0
000128 0.242142 AB p151_mb_129 None 2 0 0 0 2
000140 0.129449 AB p167_mb_139 None 1 1 0 0 0
000150 0.129449 AB p172_mb_154 None 1 0 0 0 1
000151 0.242142 AB p171_mb_155 None 2 2 0 0 0
000155 0.129449 AB p177_mb_159 None 1 0 0 0 1
000160 0.129449 AB p223_mb_164 None 1 0 0 0 1
000174 0.242142 AB p229_mb_179 None 2 0 0 0 2
000069 0.129449 EV p103_ev_072 None 1 0 0 1 0
000181 0.129449 AB p211_mb_186 None 1 0 0 0 1
000208 0.129449 AB p247_mb_212 None 1 0 0 0 1
000213 0.129449 AB p256_mb_218 None 1 0 0 0 1
000221 0.129449 AB p270_mb_226 None 1 1 0 0 0
000222 0.129449 AB p264_mb_227 None 1 0 0 0 1
000223 0.129449 AB p242_mb_228 None 1 0 0 0 1
000233 0.340246 AB p275_mb_238 None 3 2 0 0 1
000113 0.917531 ED p138_ed_117 None 18 12 0 2 4
000239 0.129449 AB p299_mb_244 None 1 1 0 0 0
000197 0.129449 EV p236_ev_202 None 1 0 0 1 0
000265 0.129449 AB p281_mb_271 None 1 1 0 0 0
000284 0.129449 AB p313_mb_290 None 1 1 0 0 0
000285 0.129449 AB p314_mb_291 None 1 0 0 0 1
000296 0.242142 AB p328_mb_302 None 2 0 0 2 0
000311 0.129449 AB p368_mb_317 None 1 0 0 0 1
000317 0.129449 AB p365_mb_323 None 1 0 0 0 1
000281 0.129449 EV p292_ev_282 None 1 0 0 0 1
000262 0.242142 ED p288_ed_251 None 2 0 0 0 2
000318 0.564725 AB p364_mb_324 None 6 3 0 0 3

Audit statistics

The "Number of audit units to audit" is based on the NEGEXP method, which is very efficient and requires selecting larger audit units with higher probability than smaller ones. The numbers given here are based on a confidence level of 75%. I.e. they are designed so the audit will either 1) find a discrepancy and call for an escalation or full hand recount, or 2) reduce the risk of confirming an incorrect outcome to (100 - 75)%, even if the tally system has been manipulated. A maximum "within-precinct-miscount" of 20% is assumed. See On Auditing Elections When Precincts Have Different Sizes, by Javed A. Aslam, Raluca A. Popa and Ronald L. Rivest


Contest: ESTES VALLEY RECREATION AND PARK DIST BALLOT ISSUE 4D

Number of precincts: 48
Total number of votes cast:  84
Average number of votes/precinct: 1.75
Median number of votes/precinct: 1
Maximum number of votes/precinct: 18
Minimum number of votes/precinct: 1
Ratio of max/min: 18.0
margin =  4.7619047619 percent, 4.0 votes
s =  0.2  (maximum within-precinct-miscount)
alpha =  0.25  (confidence is 1 - alpha:  0.75 )

Rule of Thumb says:
    11.6448726334 precincts.
    expected workload =  36.75 votes counted.

APR says:
    b = 5.71428571429 precincts needed to hold corruption
    u =  10 precincts to audit
    expected workload =  17.5 votes
    confidence level to find one of b =  0.757184854889
    bmin = 1
    confidence level to find one of bmin =  0.208333333333

SAFE says:
    bmin = 1
    Number of precincts to audit = u = 36
    Confidence level achieved =  0.75
    expected workload =  63.0

Negexp says:
    w = 2.88539008178
    largest probability =  0.917530755577
    smallest probability =  0.129449436704
    expected number of precincts audited =  8.97085762636
    expected workload =  31.3711140646 votes counted

PPEBWR says:
    t =  11
    largest total probability =  0.929545109498
    smallest total probability =  0.123429462484
    expected number of precincts audited = 8.65894940234
    expected workload =  31.0894928664 votes counted.
    max difference from negexp =  0.0120143539209